Where are govt policies taking India ?

Looking ahead to India’s job market in 2035, keeping in view the Rajan–Vembu debate on industrial policy and IP ownership, here’s a structured outlook:

• Manufacturing jobs

  • If India follows Rajan’s free‑market approach, manufacturing may remain low‑wage, assembly‑focused, similar to Mexico’s maquiladora model.

  • If Vembu’s industrial policy vision succeeds, manufacturing could shift toward higher value‑addition (semiconductors, electronics, R&D‑linked production), creating better‑paying roles.

• Technology & IP‑driven sectors

  • By 2035, countries owning intellectual property (AI, biotech, clean energy, semiconductors) will capture most of the value.

  • India’s ability to invest in R&D and protect IP will decide whether jobs are innovative and high‑paying or remain service‑oriented and low‑margin.

• Services & IT

  • Automation and AI will reduce routine coding, testing, and BPO roles.

  • New opportunities will emerge in AI product management, cybersecurity, cloud, and data science — but require reskilling.

  • Without reskilling, millions of service jobs could vanish, creating structural unemployment.

• Agriculture & informal sector

  • Still a large employer in 2035, but unlikely to generate high wages.

  • Tech‑enabled agriculture (precision farming, agri‑AI) could improve productivity, but adoption will be uneven.

• Healthcare, education, and public services

  • These remain augmentable sectors — AI will assist, not replace, workers.

  • Demand for skilled professionals will grow, offering relatively stable employment.

• Overall scenario

  • With industrial policy + IP focus → India could generate high‑value jobs, raise wages, and reduce dependence on low‑margin assembly.

  • Without it → India risks a Mexico‑like trajectory, stuck in low‑wage manufacturing with limited innovation gains.

👉 In short: By 2035, India’s job market will split sharply depending on whether it owns IP and invests in R&D or remains a low‑cost labor hub.

• Context: Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan questioned India’s industrial policy, especially the push for semiconductors, calling chipsets “the most easily smuggled thing on Earth.” He doubted the effectiveness of government support for chosen sectors.

• Jobs concern: Rajan cited Tamil Nadu, saying manufacturing jobs often pay only ₹20,000/month, similar to drivers or domestic help, and argued India must aim for better‑paying jobs.

• Vembu’s response: Zoho founder Sridhar Vembu countered that India cannot complain about low‑paying factory jobs while rejecting industrial policy.

• Core argument: Vembu stressed that high‑paying jobs come from high value addition, requiring India to do R&D, own intellectual property (IP), and capture economic value domestically.

• Implication: Without IP ownership, even assembling global products like iPhones won’t raise wages significantly.

• Comparison: Vembu warned that Rajan’s “Chicago School” free‑market approach could leave India resembling Mexico — dependent on low‑value manufacturing without strong IP or innovation base.

Sridhar Vembu says Raghuram Rajan’s ‘Chicago School’ economics can make India like Mexico