IT & ITES - Products and services are likely to get cheaper over the next few decades

 Let’s dive into the world of IT (Information Technology) and ITES (IT-Enabled Services) to explore which products and services are likely to get cheaper over the next few decades and which ones might resist cost declines. The software and IT landscape is heavily influenced by automation, cloud computing, AI, and scalability, but factors like customization, human expertise, and security needs can keep some costs elevated. Below, I’ll break it down into two sections—those likely to get cheaper and those that might not—within the IT/ITES domain, with reasoning and examples tailored to trends, including India’s growing role as an IT powerhouse.

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IT/ITES Products and Services Likely to Get Cheaper

These are areas where technology, standardization, and scale are driving costs down, much like the internet or computer hardware did historically.

1. Cloud-Based Software Subscriptions

• Why Cheaper: The shift to cloud computing (e.g., AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) reduces infrastructure costs for providers, and competition drives prices down. Open-source frameworks and AI streamline development.
• Examples:
  • Productivity tools (e.g., Google Workspace, Microsoft 365).
  • CRM platforms (e.g., Salesforce clones or Zoho).
• Driver: Economies of scale and subscription models spread costs across millions of users.
• Timeline: Already happening; expect further drops by 2030 as cloud adoption peaks.

2. Basic App Development

• Why Cheaper: Low-code/no-code platforms (e.g., Bubble, OutSystems) and AI-assisted coding (e.g., GitHub Copilot) reduce the need for skilled developers. Templates and frameworks speed up delivery.
• Examples:
  • Simple mobile apps (e.g., e-commerce, fitness trackers).
  • Business websites or chatbots.
• Driver: Democratization of tools lowers entry barriers; offshore development (e.g., India) keeps labor costs competitive.
• Timeline: 5-10 years for widespread affordability.

3. ITES Outsourcing Services (Routine Tasks)

• Why Cheaper: Robotic Process Automation (RPA) and AI handle repetitive tasks like data entry, customer support, and payroll processing. India’s ITES sector is already pivoting to automate BPO services.
• Examples:
  • Call center support (via AI chatbots).
  • Back-office operations (e.g., invoice processing).
• Driver: Automation cuts human labor costs; competition among providers (e.g., TCS, Infosys) squeezes margins.
• Timeline: Rapid decline over the next decade as RPA matures.

4. Cybersecurity Tools (Basic Tier)

• Why Cheaper: Standardized solutions for small businesses (e.g., antivirus, firewalls) benefit from mass production and AI-driven threat detection. Open-source security tools gain traction.
• Examples:
  • Endpoint protection (e.g., CrowdStrike lite versions).
  • Penetration testing tools for SMEs.
• Driver: Scale and commoditization; India’s cybersecurity startups (e.g., Seqrite) push affordable options.
• Timeline: 5-15 years as threats standardize and solutions scale.

5. Online Training and EdTech Software

• Why Cheaper: AI tutors, scalable platforms (e.g., BYJU’S, Coursera), and reusable content reduce delivery costs. India’s push for digital education (e.g., Swayam) accelerates this.
• Examples:
  • Coding bootcamps (e.g., freeCodeCamp-style).
  • Language learning apps (e.g., Duolingo).
• Driver: Massive user bases and automation of content creation (e.g., AI-generated lessons).
• Timeline: Already dropping; near-free options by 2040.

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IT/ITES Products and Services Unlikely to Get Cheaper

These resist cost declines due to complexity, customization, human expertise, or rising demand outpacing efficiency gains.

1. Bespoke Software Development

• Why Not Cheaper: Custom solutions (e.g., enterprise ERP systems, tailored AI models) require skilled developers, extensive testing, and ongoing maintenance. Client-specific needs defy standardization.
• Examples:
  • Custom SAP implementations for large firms.
  • Niche industry software (e.g., healthcare compliance systems).
• Driver: Human expertise and iterative design; India’s IT firms (e.g., Wipro) charge premium rates for this.
• Confidence Score: 90%—automation helps but doesn’t eliminate skilled labor.

2. High-End Cybersecurity Services

• Why Not Cheaper: Advanced threats (e.g., state-sponsored hacks, zero-day exploits) demand top-tier experts and cutting-edge tools. R&D costs for staying ahead of hackers remain high.
• Examples:
  • Managed detection and response (MDR) for corporations.
  • Custom encryption for governments (e.g., India’s DRDO projects).
• Driver: Rising complexity of cyber threats and regulatory compliance (e.g., GDPR, India’s DPDP Act).
• Confidence Score: 95%—demand will keep prices elevated.

3. AI Model Training (Specialized)

• Why Not Cheaper: Training large language models or industry-specific AI (e.g., for drug discovery) requires massive compute power, rare data sets, and PhD-level talent. Costs may drop slightly but not drastically.
• Examples:
  • Custom AI for autonomous vehicles.
  • Predictive analytics for finance (e.g., algorithmic trading).
• Driver: Resource intensity (e.g., GPU costs) and data scarcity; India’s AI ambitions (e.g., AI Mission) won’t cheapen this soon.
• Confidence Score: 85%—breakthroughs in efficiency could lower costs marginally.

4. IT Consulting and Strategy

• Why Not Cheaper: High-level planning (e.g., digital transformation, cloud migration) relies on experienced consultants who analyze unique business needs. AI can’t fully replace strategic thinking.
• Examples:
  • Enterprise architecture design (e.g., Accenture projects).
  • C-suite tech advisory services.
• Driver: Human insight and trust; India’s IT giants (e.g., HCL) thrive here with premium pricing.
• Confidence Score: 90%—automation aids but doesn’t supplant expertise.

5. Legacy System Maintenance

• Why Not Cheaper: Old software (e.g., COBOL-based banking systems) requires rare skills and manual updates. Companies delay modernization, increasing demand for specialists.
• Examples:
  • Mainframe support for banks (e.g., SBI’s legacy systems).
  • Old ERP patches (e.g., Oracle pre-cloud).
• Driver: Shrinking talent pool and compatibility issues; India’s IT workforce still services this globally.
• Confidence Score: 80%—costs may hold unless mass migration to new systems accelerates.

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Key Trends Shaping This Split

• Scalability Wins: Anything mass-producible (cloud apps, basic ITES) gets cheaper as users grow—think India’s 1.4 billion population driving EdTech demand.
• Specialization Costs: Tailored or cutting-edge IT (bespoke software, advanced AI) stays pricey due to human and resource intensity.
• India’s Role: As a global IT/ITES hub, India amplifies both trends—offering low-cost outsourcing while commanding premiums for high-skill work (e.g., Infosys’s AI contracts).