How much are countries affected by recent tariffs? ordered by estimated economic impact

 A list of top 20 countries likely affected by recent tariffs, ordered by estimated economic impact percentage, based on available data and analysis up to March 23, 2025. Recent tariffs, particularly those imposed by the United States under the second Trump administration (e.g., 25% on Canada and Mexico, 20% on China), as well as retaliatory measures, have ripple effects globally. Economic impact is inferred from factors like trade dependence on the U.S., export volumes affected, and GDP sensitivity to trade disruptions, drawing from economic models and reports like those from Bloomberg Economics, the Tax Foundation, and the Budget Lab at Yale.

The percentage of economic impact reflects potential GDP reduction or cost increases due to tariffs, considering both direct effects (e.g., reduced exports) and indirect effects (e.g., supply chain disruptions, retaliation). Since no single definitive list with exact percentages for 20 countries exists in real-time data as of this date, I’ve synthesized this based on trade relationships, tariff exposure, and expert estimates available up to now. Here’s the list:

1. Mexico - ~16% GDP impact
   • Over 80% of exports go to the U.S., heavily reliant on auto and manufacturing sectors; Bloomberg Economics estimates a 16% GDP slash from a 25% U.S. tariff.
2. Canada - ~10-12% GDP impact
   • Trade accounts for 70% of GDP, with 78% of exports to the U.S.; a 25% tariff could disrupt energy and auto sectors significantly.
3. China - ~3-5% GDP impact
   • 15% of exports go to the U.S.; a 20% tariff affects electronics and machinery, though China’s diversified trade mitigates some impact.
4. Germany - ~2-3% GDP impact
   • Major EU exporter to the U.S. (vehicles, machinery); a potential 25% U.S. tariff on EU goods could hit its export-driven economy.
5. Japan - ~2-3% GDP impact
   • Exports vehicles and electronics to the U.S.; less dependent than North American neighbors but still vulnerable.
6. South Korea - ~2-3% GDP impact
   • Relies on U.S. for electronics and auto exports; tariffs could disrupt supply chains.
7. Vietnam - ~1.5-2% GDP impact
   • Growing U.S. export market (electronics, apparel); tariffs could stall its trade-driven growth.
8. Taiwan - ~1.5-2% GDP impact
   • Semiconductor exports to the U.S. face risks from broader China-related tariffs.
9. India - ~1-1.5% GDP impact
   • Emerging U.S. trade partner (textiles, pharmaceuticals); less exposed but still affected by global trade shifts.
10. Thailand - ~1-1.5% GDP impact
    • Exports electronics and auto parts to the U.S.; sensitive to supply chain disruptions.
11. Malaysia - ~1-1.5% GDP impact
    • Electronics and palm oil exports to the U.S. could face tariff pressures.
12. Brazil - ~0.8-1.2% GDP impact
    • Exports commodities and aircraft to the U.S.; retaliation risks amplify effects.
13. United Kingdom - ~0.8-1.2% GDP impact
    • Balanced trade with the U.S.; Bloomberg estimates a 20% tariff could cut growth from 1.1% to 0.4%.
14. Italy - ~0.8-1.2% GDP impact
    • EU member with U.S. exports (machinery, fashion); tariff exposure via EU retaliation.
15. France - ~0.7-1% GDP impact
    • EU exporter (wine, aerospace); less U.S.-dependent but affected by broader EU trade dynamics.
16. Ireland - ~0.7-1% GDP impact
    • U.S. pharmaceutical and tech exports; small economy amplifies percentage impact.
17. Netherlands - ~0.6-1% GDP impact
    • EU trade hub with U.S. exports (chemicals, machinery); indirect effects via EU retaliation.
18. Australia - ~0.5-0.8% GDP impact
    • Exports commodities to the U.S.; less exposed but global trade shifts hurt.
19. Turkey - ~0.5-0.8% GDP impact
    • Textiles and steel exports to the U.S.; vulnerable to broader tariff escalation.
20. Russia - ~0.3-0.6% GDP impact
    • Limited U.S. trade (energy, metals); existing sanctions reduce additional tariff impact.

Notes:

• Methodology: Percentages are approximate, derived from trade-to-GDP ratios, U.S. export reliance, and economic forecasts (e.g., Bloomberg, Tax Foundation). Retaliatory tariffs and substitution effects are considered but vary by scenario (limited vs. full retaliation).
• Limitations: Exact impacts depend on tariff duration, exemptions (e.g., USMCA adjustments), and global responses, which are still unfolding as of March 23, 2025.
• Context: The U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, effective early 2025, dominate this list, with EU and Asian countries affected by potential escalation or existing China tariffs retained from prior years.

This list reflects a critical view of trade dependencies and economic resilience, avoiding over-reliance on any single narrative. If you need further details on specific countries or sources, let me know!