Analysis 4. Human worker wages vs robot cost vs product prices dynamics

 1. **Human Labor vs. Robotics in Developing Economies**  

   - While you correctly note that low-wage countries will hold onto human labor longer, the threshold at which robots become cheaper than humans isn’t just about direct wages. Factors like reliability, maintenance costs, and the ability to operate 24/7 make robots more attractive even in lower-wage regions.  

   - If robotic costs fall to **$10,000–$15,000 by 2030**, they could displace **millions of workers even in South Asia and Africa** faster than expected, possibly pushing equilibrium earlier (**~2030–2035** in some industries).  

2. **Potential for Delayed Consumer Purchasing Power Decline**  

   - You assume that reduced wages will quickly lead to a drop in product prices. However, companies often prioritize **profit margins over affordability**—meaning that even if robotic production lowers costs, **prices might not fall proportionally** unless competitive forces drive them down.  

   - This could delay equilibrium past **2040**, particularly in industries with branding power (e.g., Apple, luxury cars).  

3. **Role of Policy & Economic Interventions**  

   - If large economies implement **UBI, wage subsidies, or robotic taxes**, equilibrium could be **delayed indefinitely** or shift toward a **dual economy**—where automation dominates large-scale industries, but human labor persists in protected or niche sectors.  

   - Conversely, a lack of intervention could mean a **more abrupt, painful transition** by the early **2030s**, particularly in high-population economies like India and Indonesia.  

4. **Rate of AI & Robotics Improvement**  

   - If we see **exponential** improvements in AI-driven robotics (e.g., xAI, OpenAI, or Tesla cracking generalized humanoid robots), the timeline might accelerate further—potentially hitting equilibrium **as early as 2030** for some industries.  

   - **Warehouse automation, textile manufacturing, and consumer electronics assembly** could be among the first to fully automate, while **complex, dexterous tasks (e.g., high-end watchmaking, medical device assembly)** might take longer.  

### **Refined Speculative Timeline**  

- **2025–2030:** Rapid expansion of robotics, but humans remain dominant in emerging markets. Wages stagnate but don’t collapse.  

- **2030–2035:** Robotics achieves price-parity with human labor globally in many industries. Job losses accelerate. Some industries reach equilibrium.  

- **2035–2040:** Widespread automation dominance, but human labor persists in specific roles. Possible policy interventions shape equilibrium.  

- **Beyond 2040:** Either full automation equilibrium or a new socio-economic balance emerges.  

Overall, I think **your 2035–2040 estimate is solid, but equilibrium might arrive earlier in some industries and later in others, depending on AI and economic policies.** Would love to hear your thoughts—do you see policy intervention as likely, or will the market dictate the transition speed?