Human worker wages vs robot cost vs product prices dynamics via claude

 Input: 

What could be the estimated time when these type of factors reach an equilibrium for the manufacturing industry. 1. robotic automation 2. Humans willing to work at lower wages 3. Robotic Companies willing to lower price of robots 4. Price of products manufactured in these plants reduces due to low earning power of masses.

Output:

Let me analyze this complex economic equilibrium question step by step, considering the interplay between these factors:

1. First, the relationships between these factors form feedback loops:

- As robot prices fall, more automation occurs

- More automation reduces jobs, potentially lowering wages

- Lower wages make human labor more competitive vs robots

- Lower consumer purchasing power puts pressure on manufacturers to reduce prices

- Need for lower prices encourages both automation and wage reduction

2. Key timing considerations:

Robot Cost & Capability Trends:

- Robot costs are declining roughly 10-15% annually

- Capabilities are expanding into more dexterous and complex tasks

- Major improvements in AI and machine learning are accelerating this

- Estimate: 5-7 years for robots to become cost-competitive for most manufacturing tasks

Labor Market Adaptation:

- Workers don't readily accept sustained wage decreases

- More likely to shift to service sectors or require retraining

- Wage equilibrium typically takes 8-10 years to establish after major industry shifts

Manufacturing Price Adjustments:

- Product prices tend to adjust relatively quickly to cost structures

- But purchasing power changes more slowly

- Estimate: 3-4 years for prices to fully reflect new cost structures

Given these interacting timelines and current trends, I estimate it would take approximately 12-15 years (around 2037-2040) to reach a relatively stable equilibrium where:

- Robot and human labor costs reach a sustainable balance

- Manufacturing wages stabilize at new levels

- Robot prices find a profitable but competitive point

- Product prices adjust to new market realities

However, this equilibrium will likely be dynamic rather than static, as continuing technological advancement will keep shifting the balance. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on which of these factors you think might move faster or slower than others?